Set your win rate, risk per trade and reward ratio to see how the account grows, how deep the drawdowns get, and how wide the range of outcomes really is.
At 1:2 you break even with a 33.33% win rate.
Risk is a % of your current balance, so size grows after wins and shrinks after losses.
Wins are spread evenly across the trades: the average path, with no lucky or unlucky streaks.
| # | Result | Start balance | P&L | End balance | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loss | $10,000.00 | -$100.00 | $9,900.00 | -1% |
| 2 | Win | $9,900.00 | +$198.00 | $10,098.00 | +2% |
| 3 | Loss | $10,098.00 | -$100.98 | $9,997.02 | -1% |
| 4 | Win | $9,997.02 | +$199.94 | $10,196.96 | +2% |
| 5 | Loss | $10,196.96 | -$101.97 | $10,094.99 | -1% |
| 6 | Win | $10,094.99 | +$201.90 | $10,296.89 | +2% |
| 7 | Loss | $10,296.89 | -$102.97 | $10,193.92 | -1% |
| 8 | Win | $10,193.92 | +$203.88 | $10,397.80 | +2% |
| 9 | Loss | $10,397.80 | -$103.98 | $10,293.82 | -1% |
| 10 | Win | $10,293.82 | +$205.88 | $10,499.70 | +2% |
| 11 | Loss | $10,499.70 | -$105.00 | $10,394.70 | -1% |
| 12 | Loss | $10,394.70 | -$103.95 | $10,290.75 | -1% |
| 13 | Win | $10,290.75 | +$205.82 | $10,496.57 | +2% |
| 14 | Loss | $10,496.57 | -$104.97 | $10,391.60 | -1% |
| 15 | Win | $10,391.60 | +$207.83 | $10,599.44 | +2% |
| 16 | Loss | $10,599.44 | -$105.99 | $10,493.44 | -1% |
| 17 | Win | $10,493.44 | +$209.87 | $10,703.31 | +2% |
| 18 | Loss | $10,703.31 | -$107.03 | $10,596.28 | -1% |
| 19 | Win | $10,596.28 | +$211.93 | $10,808.20 | +2% |
| 20 | Loss | $10,808.20 | -$108.08 | $10,700.12 | -1% |
| 21 | Loss | $10,700.12 | -$107.00 | $10,593.12 | -1% |
| 22 | Win | $10,593.12 | +$211.86 | $10,804.98 | +2% |
| 23 | Loss | $10,804.98 | -$108.05 | $10,696.93 | -1% |
| 24 | Win | $10,696.93 | +$213.94 | $10,910.87 | +2% |
| 25 | Loss | $10,910.87 | -$109.11 | $10,801.76 | -1% |
| 26 | Win | $10,801.76 | +$216.04 | $11,017.80 | +2% |
| 27 | Loss | $11,017.80 | -$110.18 | $10,907.62 | -1% |
| 28 | Win | $10,907.62 | +$218.15 | $11,125.77 | +2% |
| 29 | Loss | $11,125.77 | -$111.26 | $11,014.51 | -1% |
| 30 | Win | $11,014.51 | +$220.29 | $11,234.80 | +2% |
| 31 | Loss | $11,234.80 | -$112.35 | $11,122.46 | -1% |
| 32 | Loss | $11,122.46 | -$111.22 | $11,011.23 | -1% |
| 33 | Win | $11,011.23 | +$220.22 | $11,231.46 | +2% |
| 34 | Loss | $11,231.46 | -$112.31 | $11,119.14 | -1% |
| 35 | Win | $11,119.14 | +$222.38 | $11,341.52 | +2% |
| 36 | Loss | $11,341.52 | -$113.42 | $11,228.11 | -1% |
| 37 | Win | $11,228.11 | +$224.56 | $11,452.67 | +2% |
| 38 | Loss | $11,452.67 | -$114.53 | $11,338.14 | -1% |
| 39 | Win | $11,338.14 | +$226.76 | $11,564.91 | +2% |
| 40 | Loss | $11,564.91 | -$115.65 | $11,449.26 | -1% |
| 41 | Loss | $11,449.26 | -$114.49 | $11,334.77 | -1% |
| 42 | Win | $11,334.77 | +$226.70 | $11,561.46 | +2% |
| 43 | Loss | $11,561.46 | -$115.61 | $11,445.85 | -1% |
| 44 | Win | $11,445.85 | +$228.92 | $11,674.76 | +2% |
| 45 | Loss | $11,674.76 | -$116.75 | $11,558.02 | -1% |
| 46 | Win | $11,558.02 | +$231.16 | $11,789.18 | +2% |
| 47 | Loss | $11,789.18 | -$117.89 | $11,671.28 | -1% |
| 48 | Win | $11,671.28 | +$233.43 | $11,904.71 | +2% |
| 49 | Loss | $11,904.71 | -$119.05 | $11,785.66 | -1% |
| 50 | Win | $11,785.66 | +$235.71 | $12,021.38 | +2% |
| 51 | Loss | $12,021.38 | -$120.21 | $11,901.16 | -1% |
| 52 | Loss | $11,901.16 | -$119.01 | $11,782.15 | -1% |
| 53 | Win | $11,782.15 | +$235.64 | $12,017.79 | +2% |
| 54 | Loss | $12,017.79 | -$120.18 | $11,897.62 | -1% |
| 55 | Win | $11,897.62 | +$237.95 | $12,135.57 | +2% |
| 56 | Loss | $12,135.57 | -$121.36 | $12,014.21 | -1% |
| 57 | Win | $12,014.21 | +$240.28 | $12,254.50 | +2% |
| 58 | Loss | $12,254.50 | -$122.54 | $12,131.95 | -1% |
| 59 | Win | $12,131.95 | +$242.64 | $12,374.59 | +2% |
| 60 | Loss | $12,374.59 | -$123.75 | $12,250.85 | -1% |
| 61 | Loss | $12,250.85 | -$122.51 | $12,128.34 | -1% |
| 62 | Win | $12,128.34 | +$242.57 | $12,370.90 | +2% |
| 63 | Loss | $12,370.90 | -$123.71 | $12,247.19 | -1% |
| 64 | Win | $12,247.19 | +$244.94 | $12,492.14 | +2% |
| 65 | Loss | $12,492.14 | -$124.92 | $12,367.22 | -1% |
| 66 | Win | $12,367.22 | +$247.34 | $12,614.56 | +2% |
| 67 | Loss | $12,614.56 | -$126.15 | $12,488.42 | -1% |
| 68 | Win | $12,488.42 | +$249.77 | $12,738.18 | +2% |
| 69 | Loss | $12,738.18 | -$127.38 | $12,610.80 | -1% |
| 70 | Win | $12,610.80 | +$252.22 | $12,863.02 | +2% |
| 71 | Loss | $12,863.02 | -$128.63 | $12,734.39 | -1% |
| 72 | Loss | $12,734.39 | -$127.34 | $12,607.04 | -1% |
| 73 | Win | $12,607.04 | +$252.14 | $12,859.19 | +2% |
| 74 | Loss | $12,859.19 | -$128.59 | $12,730.59 | -1% |
| 75 | Win | $12,730.59 | +$254.61 | $12,985.21 | +2% |
| 76 | Loss | $12,985.21 | -$129.85 | $12,855.35 | -1% |
| 77 | Win | $12,855.35 | +$257.11 | $13,112.46 | +2% |
| 78 | Loss | $13,112.46 | -$131.12 | $12,981.34 | -1% |
| 79 | Win | $12,981.34 | +$259.63 | $13,240.96 | +2% |
| 80 | Loss | $13,240.96 | -$132.41 | $13,108.55 | -1% |
| 81 | Loss | $13,108.55 | -$131.09 | $12,977.47 | -1% |
| 82 | Win | $12,977.47 | +$259.55 | $13,237.02 | +2% |
| 83 | Loss | $13,237.02 | -$132.37 | $13,104.65 | -1% |
| 84 | Win | $13,104.65 | +$262.09 | $13,366.74 | +2% |
| 85 | Loss | $13,366.74 | -$133.67 | $13,233.07 | -1% |
| 86 | Win | $13,233.07 | +$264.66 | $13,497.73 | +2% |
| 87 | Loss | $13,497.73 | -$134.98 | $13,362.76 | -1% |
| 88 | Win | $13,362.76 | +$267.26 | $13,630.01 | +2% |
| 89 | Loss | $13,630.01 | -$136.30 | $13,493.71 | -1% |
| 90 | Win | $13,493.71 | +$269.87 | $13,763.59 | +2% |
| 91 | Loss | $13,763.59 | -$137.64 | $13,625.95 | -1% |
| 92 | Loss | $13,625.95 | -$136.26 | $13,489.69 | -1% |
| 93 | Win | $13,489.69 | +$269.79 | $13,759.48 | +2% |
| 94 | Loss | $13,759.48 | -$137.59 | $13,621.89 | -1% |
| 95 | Win | $13,621.89 | +$272.44 | $13,894.33 | +2% |
| 96 | Loss | $13,894.33 | -$138.94 | $13,755.38 | -1% |
| 97 | Win | $13,755.38 | +$275.11 | $14,030.49 | +2% |
| 98 | Loss | $14,030.49 | -$140.30 | $13,890.19 | -1% |
| 99 | Win | $13,890.19 | +$277.80 | $14,167.99 | +2% |
| 100 | Loss | $14,167.99 | -$141.68 | $14,026.31 | -1% |
Three numbers decide the long-run result. Small changes to any of them compound into very different accounts.
Win rate × reward − loss rate × 1. At 45% and 1:2 that's +0.35R per trade: on average each trade earns 35% of what you risk. Below zero, no sizing can save the account.
Risk scales both the gains and the drawdowns. Doubling risk roughly doubles the drawdown, and with compounding a deep hole takes far more than the same % to climb back out of.
Even a solid edge produces losing streaks. Random mode shows how far a real sequence can drift from the average, and how often the same stats end in a loss.
It depends on your reward ratio. The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + reward): 50% at 1:1, 33.3% at 1:2 and 25% at 1:3. Anything above that is a positive expectancy, before fees and slippage.
Compounding grows faster when the edge is positive, because size increases with the balance, but it also makes drawdowns bite in dollars at the top. Fixed sizing grows linearly and is how most prop-firm accounts are traded.
Because short samples are noisy. Over 50 trades a 45% win rate can easily come out at 35%. The more trades you simulate, the closer most runs land to the expected path, which is exactly what the band shows.
No. It assumes every win pays exactly your reward ratio and every loss costs exactly your risk. Real results are lower once commissions, slippage and partial fills are included.
Educational tool only. Simulated results are hypothetical, assume fixed outcomes per trade and don't predict or guarantee future performance.